Communication avec acte

Bayesian Modeling of Failure Rate in Reliabilty
11th Biennial Conference on Engineering Systems Design and Analysis ESDA 2012 , Nantes, France, 2-4 juillet 2012.

par   S. BELEULMI , Bellaouar Ahmed , Mohammed LACHI

Résumé :

The lack of reliability testing in a project, finds its basis in
financial considerations and deadlines. In this context, Bayesian
techniques have applications to the extent that they contribute to
a significant reduction in the amount of reliability testing based
on the classical approach, with the knowledge of the reliability
data on a priori components involved. This article is devoted to
an approach to a Bayesian cost optimization of reliability of
tests conducted on the electronic components installed in a lift.
The Bayesian estimation provides a failure rate of 1.795.10 -6.
hr -1 to 60% instead of 2.771.10-6 .hr- 1 after testing. A gain of
64.77% in terms of time and therefore the cost of testing will be
reduced considerably. When the number of panes increases (K0
= 2, 3 and 5), the real tests do not add to virtual testing and we
recorded a decrease in time to win this explains why the
decrease in reliability. A second test of confidence was
performed at 70% to check if the expert opinion may be still

Thématique du GRESPI concernée par cet article :